There have been plenty of twists and turns across the 2024 NFL season, but it is abundantly clear that sportsbooks have settled on four teams they believe are the leading contenders. It’s not that they have ruled anybody out, of course. Instead, four teams are grouped at the top of the betting markets, and there is considerable distance between them and everyone else.
If you weren’t aware, the teams leading the Super Bowl odds betting markets are the Lions, Chiefs, Eagles, and Bills. They are all available at around +500 to win Super Bowl LIX. It’s difficult to choose between them: The Lions have been the best team, but the Chiefs have the experience and a knack for winning; the Eagles are on the up, but the Bills have MVP candidate Josh Allen locked in.
Value Can Be Found Outside The Picks.
Yet, instead of choosing between this quartet, is it worth looking beyond for some value? The implied probability of the Super Bowl winner being one of the four teams mentioned is around 65% (that calculation is based on the odds and nothing else). That means it’s likely to be one of the four, but it’s certainly not guaranteed. The 35% chance of it being ‘someone else’ is pretty tempting, especially if you can figure out who is the most likely of the ‘someone else’ to do it.
Of course, sportsbooks aren’t stupid, and they have grouped the quartet at the top by using actuary, which is beyond most of us. But if you want to look at it another way, those teams are the least flawed and have been the most consistent overall. This directly contrasts the team that most sportsbooks have made 5th favorite overall for Super Bowl LIX – the Baltimore Ravens.
The Ravens have been highly inconsistent.
The Ravens, generally available at around +1000, have been flawed and inconsistent. They have lost to good teams (Chiefs, Eagles) and bad teams (Browns, Raiders), so they are a bit of a head-scratching team. So why should anyone back them? It’s a tough sell, but the Ravens can beat anyone on their day. Look back at how they smashed the Bills in late September for evidence. If Lamar Jackson and Co can scratch some consistency down the backstretch, the Ravens fans will start to believe.
Next comes the Minnesota Vikings, a team widely available at a high price of +1600. The Vikings were considered rank outsiders in preseason, and many believed their good start was a false dawn, but they kept winning. They have had one of the easiest schedules of any NFL team, yet that should not count against them. Any team going 11-2 over the first 13 games should be considered a contender in the Playoffs.
Steelers’ defense has led the way this season.
We want to look at the Steelers next. A team whose defense has carried them to the summit of the AFC North, holding the Ravens at bay. In Mike Tomlin, they have one of the NFL’s best coaches, and we reckon the Steelers will be the type of team nobody wants to meet in the Playoffs. They have a brutal finish to the season (Ravens, Eagles, Chiefs), so that will tell us something about their mettle. Odds of +2000 show that sportsbooks remain unconvinced, but that could change.
Finally, the Green Bay Packers are generally available at around the same price as the Steelers. They should clinch a postseason berth sooner rather than later, and they have impressed in swatting aside lesser opposition this season. The only issue is that they seem to lose when they come up against good teams: The Lions (twice), Vikings, and Eagles have all beaten the Packers this season. Most bettors need evidence that the Packers can do something against an elite side before parting with their money.
Value bets may make sense as we move through the Playoffs.
It will be tough for anyone outside that ‘fab four,’ but there is still a long way to go. Sports championships aren’t decided in the regular season, and teams can grow into form during the Playoffs. There is no certainty in backing any of the four teams, so you can understand that some bettors might look for a bit of value further down the betting markets. Any of the teams mentioned above winning would represent a shock, but only a mild one when you compare it to some of the upsets we have seen in the past.
