For most football fans exploring the world of betting for the first time, betting on the winners and losers in games is usually the first thing they try. However, betting on the over/under of games can be just as straightforward for new bettors and lucrative for those who know how to evaluate over/under bets. That’s why it’s helpful to understand the basics of over/under betting and learn some tips to help you make this type of bet in NFL games.
Read the Injury Report
Obviously, tracking injuries is important for any type of NFL betting. But if you’re considering an over/under bet, it’s important to look at the injury report from that angle. For instance, an injured quarterback will usually move the point spread and reduce the over/under total. But if a team is missing a big-play wide receiver or an explosive running back, that can reduce the chances of it being a high-scoring game.
Likewise, if a team is missing multiple receivers and will have to rely more on its running game, that could reduce the number of possessions each team is likely to get, resulting in a low-scoring game. Defensive injuries can be important too. If a team is missing a key pass rusher or multiple members of its secondary, long passing plays will become easier, resulting in a higher-scoring game. Keep in mind that it’s not just star players who could have an impact on the total points scored in a game.
Follow Betting Trends
Tracking the trends of each team and changes in the betting line are just as important with over/under bets as they are with other types of betting. Some teams are better at getting over the point total than others while some teams tend to play low-scoring games more times than not. It’s also a good idea to look at home and road splits. It’s common in the NFL for teams to have a harder time scoring on the road than at home while some teams are much stronger defensively with the home crowd behind them. These trends can greatly impact the total number of points scored in a game.
Meanwhile, the over/under total for a game can change in the days leading up to a game the same way the point spread changes. More times than not, the public likes to take over with NFL games. This can drive up the over/under in some cases, creating more value if you take the under. If you’re serious about making intelligence over/under bets, it’s important to look at what direction the odds are trending.
Do Some Line Shopping
Not all sportsbooks are going to have the same spread, nor will they have the same over/under totals. There is no shortage of football betting sites that offer different promotions and features, as well as different point totals and odds. If you feel confident about how a particular game is going to play out, consider looking around at different sportsbooks. Some might have a higher over/under total while others might have more lucrative betting odds than the others. No matter what type of betting you’re doing, this is one of the best things you can do to put yourself in a position to succeed.
Keep the Weather in Mind
Outside of a few domed stadiums or cities with pristine weather conditions most days of the year, weather will inevitably play a factor in NFL games.
Obviously, good weather conditions will make it a little easier for both teams to score points. On other occasions, there is bad weather during an NFL game that can hinder scoring. High winds, rain, and snow can all make it more difficult to throw the ball, potentially reducing the point total. Bad weather can also make it harder to make field goals. With such small margins, a missed field goal can be the difference between winning and losing an over/under bet.
