Actuary is not an exact science, and it never will be. Yet, when making sports predictions, there is always the risk of looking foolish. For example, consider the NFL pundits and fans who banged the drum for the San Francisco 49ers ahead of the 2024 season. The Niners were beaten in Super Bowl LVIII last February, and many thought that this team could go one better at Super Bowl LIX. They endured a terrible season, making plenty of pundits look entirely foolish.
Sportsbooks had backed the Niners in the Super Bowl odds, too. They were mainly considered second favorites behind the reigning champions, the Kansas City Chiefs. Of course, this was more than just a case of “let’s put last year’s finalists as the two favorites,” as the odds would have been meticulously calculated through statistics and algorithms. Yet, the bookies were pretty much on the money when looking at how the betting markets shaped up before the 2024 season and how they compare to the current NFL Playoffs.
Most Teams Backed To Succeed Did So
The upshot is this: The teams that qualified for the NFL Playoffs, including those predicted to dominate throughout the regular season, pretty much did what the sportsbooks said. The Chiefs above, Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, Bills, and Baltimore Ravens were heavily backed to make the Playoffs and duly did so. What we liked about how the sportsbooks laid out the odds is that teams with early-season struggles, like the Ravens, were nonetheless backed to turn things around in the mid-season odds, which they did.
It is, of course, not always apparent who will do well at the start of the season. In fact, there is evidence to support that the pre-season favorite rarely wins the Super Bowl. Looking at trends since 2000, they put the number at around 15-20%. We should note, though, that not every sportsbook will have the same team as the favorite, hence the problem with getting exact numbers. Regardless, if we look at 15-20% as a ballpark figure, you can gather that the sportsbooks are mostly wrong. Yet, more often than not, the eventual winner will come out of the gaggle of teams at the top of the market. Thus, statistically, it will likely be one of the five teams mentioned earlier.
Commanders And Vikings Surprised
In most cases, the sportsbooks were not far off when listing the other teams that made the Playoffs, including those now eliminated, like the Packers and Steelers. Neither team was in that elite group at the top of the Super Bowl betting markets, but they were backed to qualify for the postseason. Arguably, the teams that the sportsbooks missed, i.e., teams that had good seasons but were discounted in betting terms, were the Washington Commanders and Minnesota Vikings. Both teams had surprise seasons, defying the predictions of both the sportsbooks and many leading pundits.
In the end, this was a good season for the sportsbooks based purely on how the betting markets predicted the majority of teams’ fortunes. There are always teams that flop despite being backed in the odds; we could point to the Denver Broncos of 2022, the Dallas Cowboys of 2020, and the Cleveland Browns (too many seasons to mention), yet for the 2024 season, they got the majority of the calls right.
